Hold onto your hats, folks! The latest data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics is hinting at a potential turning point in the property market. For March 2025, we’re seeing a clear uptick in transaction activity, a glimmer of hope after a prolonged period of stagnation. Here’s the breakdown:
We saw a rise in the number of cities experiencing month-on-month increases in new home sales prices across 70 major and medium-sized cities. This isn’t just noise; it’s a signal.
Tier-1 cities are leading the charge, with prices actually climbing month-on-month. The bleeding in lower-tier cities (Tier-2 and Tier-3) is slowing down – the month-on-month declines are getting smaller. Year-on-year declines across all tiers are also moderating.
Let’s dive a little deeper into what this all means.
Firstly, understanding ‘month-on-month’ versus ‘year-on-year’ is key. YoY shows changes compared to the same month last year, while MoM shows changes compared to the previous month. MoM gains signal immediate traction.
Secondly, the resilience of Tier-1 cities is crucial. These are the economic engines and often set the tone for the rest of the market. If they’re recovering, it’s a positive sign for the overall economy.
Thirdly, the narrowing of declines in lower-tier cities suggests that government stimulus and easing policies are beginning to have an impact. However, don’t get ahead of yourselves. This is a complex situation, and we need to see sustained improvement to declare a full-blown recovery. The market isn’t out of the woods yet, but the seeds of a potential rebound are being sown.
This isn’t time to celebrate wildly, but it is time to pay attention. We might just be witnessing the early stages of a housing market revival. Stay tuned, because I’ll be keeping a close eye on this… and you should too.
