Okay, buckle up buttercups, because things are getting real in the crypto world – and the geopolitical landscape is throwing gasoline on the fire! The White House is digging its heels in on tariffs, reportedly telling advisors that Trump’s new global tariffs aren’t up for negotiation, period. Macron’s already threatening a massive retaliatory response from France, calling Trump’s moves ‘brutal and unfounded.’ Seriously, folks, this isn’t just a trade spat; it’s a potential global economic earthquake.
And guess who’s feeling the tremors? Bitcoin miners! Trump’s tariffs will likely send ASIC miner prices soaring, potentially by a jaw-dropping 5-10x, as supply gets choked off from Asian markets.
But here’s where it gets interesting. Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards is seeing parallels between now and the 2022 bear market bottom. He points out that Bitcoin’s reaction to the tariff news was WAY worse than the stock market – a worrying sign. He also highlights a dip in US business expectations to levels not seen since the early 2000s. While these indicators can be flaky, ignoring them would be foolish. Edwards is eyeing a key level of $91,000 for Bitcoin and warns that escalating trade wars or declining corporate profits could wreck the technical outlook.
However, don’t despair just yet! Edwards believes a surge in the US M2 money supply is on the horizon, which could provide a serious boost for BTC. Meanwhile, analyst Colin Talks Crypto is predicting a potential bounce in early May.
Elsewhere, Paul Atkins, Trump’s pick for SEC Chair, cleared a key Senate committee hurdle (with zero Democratic support, ouch!). Powell’s upcoming speech could send Fed rate cut expectations into a tailspin, particularly if he leans hawkish on inflation. And amidst all this, CZ (yes, the Binance guy) is advising governments on crypto regulation and blockchain solutions – talk about full circle! Trump also invited El Salvador’s President Bukele to the White House… now that’s a meeting to watch!
Deep Dive: Understanding M2 Money Supply & Bitcoin
M2 money supply is a measure of the total amount of money circulating in an economy. It includes cash, checking deposits, savings deposits, and money market securities. A significant increase in M2, often due to quantitative easing measures by central banks, can lead to inflation. Historically, Bitcoin has been seen as a potential hedge against inflation, meaning its value might increase when the purchasing power of traditional currencies declines. This is because Bitcoin has a limited supply (21 million coins), unlike fiat currencies which can be printed at will.
When M2 increases, there’s more money chasing the same amount of goods and services, potentially driving up prices. Investors might then seek assets like Bitcoin that are perceived as safe havens or stores of value. The expectation of increased M2 is fueling optimistic outlooks for BTC, but it is vital to remember that this relationship isn’t guaranteed and external factors – like global trade tensions – can always throw a wrench in the works.
